IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rbp/esteco/ree-28-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Términos de intercambio y productividad total de factores: Evidencia empírica de los mercados emergentes de América latina

Author

Listed:
  • Castillo, Paul
  • Rojas, Youel

Abstract

En este documento se utiliza datos trimestrales para identificar la relación entre los términos de intercambio y la productividad total de factores (PTF) para México, Perú y Chile. Se utiliza un enfoque de dos etapas: primero, se estima la senda histórica de la PTF para cada país utilizando un modelo estructural DSGE para una economía pequeña y abierta. Luego, en un segundo paso, la PTF se descompone entre un componente doméstico y uno externo ligado a los términos de intercambio, haciendo uso de un modelo VAR estructural con restricciones de largo plazo, como en Blanchard y Quah (1989). Se encuentra que los choques de términos de intercambio generan importantes ganancias de productividad en las economías consideradas, no solo de corto plazo sino también de mediano y largo plazos, predominando en nuestra muestra los impactos de corto y mediano plazos.

Suggested Citation

  • Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Términos de intercambio y productividad total de factores: Evidencia empírica de los mercados emergentes de América latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 27-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-28-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/28/ree-28-castillo-rojas.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikita Céspedes & María E. Aquije & Alan Sánchez & Rafael Vera Tudela, 2016. "Productividad sectorial en el Perú: un análisis a nivel de firmas," Chapters of Books, in: Nikita Céspedes & Pablo Lavado & Nelson Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Productividad en el Perú: medición, determinantes e implicancias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 70-92, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    5. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    6. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    7. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
    8. Nikita Céspedes & Nelson Ramirez-Rondán, 2014. "Total Factor Productivity Estimation in Peru: Primal and Dual Approaches," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 37(73), pages 9-39.
    9. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    10. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    11. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2014. "Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 722, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    13. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
    14. Céspedes, Nikita & Aquije, Maria E. & Sánchez, Alan & Vera-Tudela, Rafael, 2014. "Productividad y tratados de libre comercio a nivel de empresas en Perú," Working Papers 2014-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo, 2013. "How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets," Working Papers 2013-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Silvio Rendon, 2012. "The Frisch Elasticity in Labor Markets with high Job Turnover," Department of Economics Working Papers 12-13, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    17. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "The Terms of Trade as Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies: An Empirical Study," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010eng, July-Dece.
    18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Castillo, Luis & Florián, David, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 2019-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Terms of Trade and Total Factor Productivity: Empirical evidence from Latin American emerging markets," Working Papers 2014-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    3. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    4. Andres Fernandez & Felipe Meza, 2015. "Informal Employment and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Case of Mexico," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 381-405, April.
    5. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    6. Pham, Binh Thai & Sala, Hector & Silva, José I., 2020. "Growth and real business cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    7. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    8. Hevia, Constantino, 2014. "Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-49.
    9. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    10. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Serdar Kabaca, 2011. "Labor Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1122, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.
    13. Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Jacek Rothert & Mohammad Rahmati, 2014. "Business Cycle Accounting in a Small Open Economy," Departmental Working Papers 46, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    15. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    16. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-52.
    17. Coşkun, Sevgi, 2022. "Informal employment and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Zhongyuan Geng & Xuan Liu, 2019. "Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(20), pages 2155-2171, April.
    19. Jacek Rothert, 2012. "Productivity or Demand? Identifying Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economies," 2012 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Jacek Rothert, 2020. "International Business Cycles In Emerging Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 753-781, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-28-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Departamento de Publicaciones Económicas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcrgvpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.