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An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Carlos Montoro
  • Vicente Tuesta

    ()

Abstract

In this paper, we develop and estimate a dynamic stochastic, general-equilibrium New Keynesian model with partial dollarization. Bayesian techniques and Peruvian data are used to evaluate two forms of dollarization: currency substitution (CS) and price dollarization (PD). The empirical results are as follow: first, it is noted that the two forms of partial dollarization are important in explaining the significance of the Peruvian data. Second, models with both forms of dollarization dominate models without dollarization. Third, a counterfactual exercise shows that by eliminating both forms of partial dollarization, the response of both output and consumption to a monetary policy shock doubles, making the interest rate channel of monetary policy more effective. Fourth, based on the variance decomposition of the preferred model (with CS and PD), it is found that demand type shocks explain almost all the fluctuation in CPI inflation, the monetary shock being the most important (39%). Remarkably, foreign disturbances account for 34% of the output fluctuations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:217-265
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-012-9239-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Caputo, Rodrigo & Herrera, Luis Oscar, 2017. "Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-52.
    3. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
    4. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Términos de intercambio y productividad total de factores: Evidencia empírica de los mercados emergentes de América latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 27-46.
    5. Javier García-Cicco, 2008. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis for Emerging Countries," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(51), pages 123-142, April - S.
    6. Renzo Rossini & Marco Vega, 2008. "The monetary policy transmission mechanism under financial dollarisation: the case of Peru 1996-2006," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 395-412 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Aliya Algozhina, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy: a Non-Ricardian DSGE Approach," FIW Working Paper series 094, FIW, revised Dec 2012.
    8. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2007. "Hechos estilizados de la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 14, pages 33-75.
    9. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a DSGE Model of India," Working Papers 11/96, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Felices Guillermo & Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Monetary Policy in Dual Currency Environment," Working Papers 2007-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    12. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Terms of Trade and Total Factor Productivity: Empirical evidence from Latin American emerging markets," Working Papers 2014-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    13. Guillermo Felices & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "Monetary policy in a dual currency environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(34), pages 4739-4753, December.
    14. Rahul Anand & Purva Khera, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Product and Labor Market Reforms on Informality and Unemployment in India," IMF Working Papers 16/47, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    16. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
    17. Javier García-Cicco, 2010. "Estimating Models for Monetary Policy Analysis in Emerging Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 561, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Purva Khera, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Gender Inequality and Informality in India," IMF Working Papers 16/16, International Monetary Fund.
    19. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; DSGE; Partial dollarization; F31; F32; F41; C11;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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