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What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences

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  • McKnight, Stephen
  • Mihailov, Alexander
  • Pompa Rangel, Antonio

Abstract

This paper employs Bayesian estimation to uncover the central bank preferences of the five Latin American inflation targeting countries with floating exchange rates: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The target weights of each country’s central bank loss function are estimated using a medium-scale small open economy New Keynesian model with imperfect exchange-rate pass-through under either complete or incomplete international asset markets. Bayesian model comparison selects: (i) unambiguously the complete markets model version; (ii) the model specification with explicit concern for real exchange rate stabilization, with the exception of Peru. Our results suggest that the central banks of Mexico and Peru are closest to following a strict inflation targeting regime, whereas Brazil, Chile, and Colombia also assign a sizeable weight to output gap and real exchange rate stabilization. Finally, the estimated preference weights for each central bank are shown to credibly reflect their legal mandates.

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  • McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:63:y:2020:i:c:s0164070418304737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103188
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan David Durán-Vanegas, 2019. "Making hard choices: trilemmas and dilemmas of macroeconomic policy in Latin America," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 022-038, August.
    2. Eduardo F Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "Nominal exchange rate shocks and inflation in an open economy: towards a structuralist inflation targeting agenda," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1271-1299.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian model comparison; International asset market structure; Central bank preferences; Inflation targeting; Latin America; Small open economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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