IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/intfin/v28y2025i1p2-22.html

Latin America's Nonlinear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Guerra
  • Steven B. Kamin
  • John Kearns
  • Christian Upper
  • Aatman Vakil

Abstract

This paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation‐targeting central banks. We find that during the inflationary surge of 2021–2023, monetary policy reacted more strongly and more quickly to changes in inflation than predicted by a standard linear Taylor rule, estimated on data from the prepandemic period. Although this appears to represent a shift in the monetary reaction function, we think it more likely that Latin American central banks have been following a nonlinear strategy, responding more aggressively to inflation, the higher it rose. We confirmed this by adding the square of inflation to the Taylor rule model: its coefficient was positive and significant, indicating that policy interest rates exhibited a nonlinear response to inflation, even during the prepandemic period, and the model did a better job of predicting the sharp rise in interest rates during 2021–2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Guerra & Steven B. Kamin & John Kearns & Christian Upper & Aatman Vakil, 2025. "Latin America's Nonlinear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 2-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:28:y:2025:i:1:p:2-22
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12457
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/infi.12457?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darius Kulikauskas, 2014. "Nonlinear Taylor rule for the European Central Bank," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1798-1804.
    2. Cukierman Alex & Muscatelli Anton, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, February.
    3. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    4. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35647, April.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    6. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34710, April.
    7. Ma Jun & Olson Eric & Wohar Mark E., 2018. "Nonlinear Taylor rules: evidence from a large dataset," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-14, February.
    8. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
    10. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 205-245, Springer.
    11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    12. Elod Takáts, 2012. "Countercyclical policies in emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    14. Alejandro Werner, 2023. "Monetary policy in Latin America: The easing cycle has begun," Policy Briefs PB23-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valverde-Ambriz, Ismael D., 2026. "Dynamic central bank credibility: a Kalman Filter–Recursive Least Squares approach for emerging markets," MPRA Paper 129329, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael Guerra & Steven Kamin & John Kearns & Christian Upper & Aatman Vakil, 2024. "Latin America's non-linear response to pandemic inflation," BIS Working Papers 1209, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    3. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    5. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    6. Gabriela Bezerra De Medeiros & Marcelo Savino Portugal & Edilean Kleber Da Silva Bejarano Aragon, 2016. "Endogeneity And Nonlinearities In Central Bank Of Brazil’S Reaction Functions: An Inverse Quantile Regression Approach," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 061, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Gabriela Bezerra Medeiros & Marcelo Savino Portugal & Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2017. "Endogeneity and nonlinearities in Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction functions: an inverse quantile regression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1503-1527, December.
    8. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
    9. Nidhal Mgadmi & Slim Chaouachi & Wajdi Moussa & Azza Bejaoui, 2021. "Does the Tunisian Central Bank follow an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Long, Shaobo & Zuo, Yulan & Tian, Hao, 2023. "Asymmetries in multi-target monetary policy rule and the role of uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 278-296.
    11. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    12. Vipul Bhatt & Amr Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor, 2017. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Implicit Inflation Targets for ‘Inflation Targeting Lite’ Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 67-88, March.
    13. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    14. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    15. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Won Joong Kim, 2018. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(15), pages 3552-3565, December.
    16. Camilla Lupiani, 2024. "Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24218, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Hinterlang, Natascha, 2019. "Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203503, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.
    19. repec:lan:wpaper:2364 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Floro, Danvee & van Roye, Björn, 2017. "Threshold effects of financial stress on monetary policy rules: A panel data analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-620.
    21. Klose, Jens, 2023. "Estimated monetary policy rules for the ECB with granular variations of forecast horizons for inflation and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:28:y:2025:i:1:p:2-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.