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Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

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  • Nikola Fabris

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia and Central Bank of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro)

  • Milena Lazić

    (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

The subject of this paper is the evaluation of monetary policy reaction function on panel data of 37 world economies, both advanced and emerging markets, during the period of 1995Q1 – 2018Q3. The paper aims to evaluate the role and importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy reaction function depending on the level of economic development. For this purpose, a relevant set of unbalanced panel data was formed with a balanced relationship between developed and emerging market economies. The methodology of empirical research is based on the econometric assessment of monetary policy reaction function within which the central bank adjusts its key policy rate to the dynamics of inflation, output gap and fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate. The research results confirm the hypothesis that the exchange rate represents a statistically significant variable only in the monetary policy reaction function of emerging market economies. In contrast, adequate specification of developed economies' monetary policy rule includes only standard macroeconomic fundamentals – inflation and output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:77-96
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy reaction function; Taylor rule; panel data analysis; exchange rate; developed countries; emerging market economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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