IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

On the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Interventions in Emerging Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Christian Daude

    (OECD)

  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Arne Nagengast

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

We analyse the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions for a panel of 18 emerging market economies during the period 2003-11. Using an error-correction model approach, we find that on average intervention is effective in moving the real exchange rate in the desired direction, controlling for deviations from the equilibrium and short-term changes in fundamentals and global financial variables. Our results are robust to different samples and estimation methods. We find little evidence of asymmetries in the effect of sales and purchases, but some evidence of more effective interventions for large deviations from the equilibrium. We also explore differences across countries according to the possible transmission channels and nature of some global shocks. Nous analysons l’efficacité des interventions sur le taux de change pour un panel de 18 économies de marché émergentes pendant la période 2003-11. À l’aide d’une approche basée sur un modèle à correction d’erreurs, nous trouvons que, en moyenne, l’intervention est efficace pour faire évoluer le taux de change réel dans la direction désirée, en contrôlant pour les écarts à l’équilibre et les variations à court-terme des fondamentaux et des variables financières globales. Nos résultats ressortent comme robustes à différents échantillons et méthodes d’estimation. Nous dégageons peu d’évidences d’asymétries dans la vente et l’achat, mais certains signes d’une plus grande efficacité d’interventions pour de grands écarts à l’équilibre. Nous explorons également les différences entre pays selon les canaux de transmission possibles et la nature de certains chocs globaux.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jxwwfmxfdth-en
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 324.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 22 Sep 2014
Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:324-en
Contact details of provider: Postal:
2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16

Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Web page: http://www.oecd.org/Dev
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging market economies: an overview," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 1-3 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  3. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 639-649, 04/05.
  4. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  5. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  7. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
  9. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
  11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  12. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
  13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  14. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
  15. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
  16. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Samuel Pienknagura, "undated". "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16107, The World Bank.
  17. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  18. Gustavo Adler & Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention; A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 11/165, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
  21. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, 01.
  22. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  23. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-382, March.
  24. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  25. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113 Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Glüzmann, Pablo Alfredo & Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2012. "Exchange rate undervaluation and economic growth: Díaz Alejandro (1965) revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 666-672.
  27. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
  28. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  29. Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Estimating the half-life of theoretically founded real exchange rate misalignments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6411, The World Bank.
  30. Gustavo Adler & Noemie Lisack & Rui Mano, 2015. "Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention; A Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 15/130, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130 Bank for International Settlements.
  32. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, 2013. "Fear of appreciation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 233-247.
  33. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
  34. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2010. "Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 119-171, April.
  35. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2005. "Intervention: what are the domestic consequences?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 56-81 Bank for International Settlements.
  36. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
  37. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
  38. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
  39. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24.
  40. Bello, Omar & Heresi, Rodrigo & Pineda Salazar, Ramón, 2010. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio: un estudio para 17 países de América Latina," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 82, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  41. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  43. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  44. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:324-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.