IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary

  • Jaromír Baxa

    ()

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague and Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic)

  • Roman Horváth

    ()

    (Czech National Bank and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

  • Borek Vasícek

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

We examine whether and how main central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. We employ a new methodology for monetary policy rules estimation, which allows for time-varying response coefficients as well as corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada and Sweden together with a new financial stress dataset developed by the International Monetary Fund allows not only testing whether the central banks responded to financial stress but also detects the periods and type of stress that were the most worrying for monetary authorities and to quantify the intensity of policy response. Our findings suggest that central banks often change policy rates: mainly decreasing it in the face of high financial stress. However, the size of a policy response varies substantially over time as well as across countries, with the 2008-2009 financial crisis being the period of the most severe and generalized response. With regards to the specific components of financial stress, most central banks seemed to respond to stock market stress and bank stress, while exchange rate stress is found to drive the reaction of central banks only in more open economies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecap.uab.es/RePEc/doc/wpdea1101.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona in its series Working Papers with number wpdea1101.

as
in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1101
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Campus Bellaterra. 08193 Bellaterra.

Phone: 34-93 581 1680
Fax: 34-93 581 2292
Web page: http://www.uab.cat/departament/economia-aplicada/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: New Evidence From Time-Varying Interest Rate Rules," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 933-950, October.
  2. Michael Melvin & Mark P. Taylor, 2009. "The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 2707, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," Working Papers 162007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Simon Gilchrist & Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 0089, European Central Bank.
  8. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
  9. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Goldstein, Morris, 2000. "Notes on contagion," MPRA Paper 24569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit spreads and monetary policy," Staff Reports 385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2002. "Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel," IMF Working Papers 02/141, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
  16. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, 05.
  17. Lars Jonung, 2010. "Financial Crisis and Crisis Management in Sweden. Lessons for Today," Working Papers id:3067, eSocialSciences.
  18. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  20. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  21. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  24. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  27. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  28. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
  29. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008. "A black swan in the money market," Working Paper Series 2008-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  30. Akram, Q. Farooq & Eitrheim, Øyvind, 2008. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilize inflation and output?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1242-1254, July.
  31. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  32. Fuhrer, Jeff & Tootell, Geoff, 2008. "Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 796-805, May.
  33. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  34. Toshitaka Sekine & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  35. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers wpdea1007, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  37. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  38. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G.M. & Pesenti, P.A., 1998. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," Princeton Studies in International Economics 84, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  39. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  40. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
  42. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  43. Martin Cihak & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Abdul Abiad & Petya Koeva Brooks & Irina Tytell & Daniel Leigh & Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/245, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  46. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2003. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  47. Schlicht, Ekkehart & Ludsteck, Johannes, 2006. "Variance Estimation in a Random Coefficients Model," IZA Discussion Papers 2031, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  48. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  49. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  50. Mark A. Carlson & Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2009. "Distress in the financial sector and economic activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  52. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2009. "Unconventional monetary policies: an appraisal," BIS Working Papers 292, Bank for International Settlements.
  53. Q. Akram & Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist, 2007. "Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 131-153, January.
  54. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim, 2007. "What can (macro-)prudential policy do to support monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 242, Bank for International Settlements.
  55. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Carolina Osorio & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2009. "Analysis of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A New Paradigm," CESifo Working Paper Series 2885, CESifo Group Munich.
  56. Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
  57. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  58. Ari Aisen & Michael Franken, 2009. "Bank Credit and the 2008 Financial Crisis: A cross-country Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 532, Central Bank of Chile.
  59. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2004. "Estimating the Smoothing Parameter in the So-Called Hodrick-Prescott Filter," IZA Discussion Papers 1054, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  60. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
  61. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?," NBER Working Papers 14678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky; It's Really About Exchange-Rate Hedging, not Equity Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 09/12, International Monetary Fund.
  63. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  64. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
  66. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfi Li, 2005. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 11830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
  68. Jennergren, L. Peter, 2001. "The Swedish Finance Company Crisis -- Could It Have Been Anticipated?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2001:6, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Dec 2001.
  69. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1981. "A Seasonal Adjustment Principle and a Seasonal Adjustment Method Derived From this Principle," Munich Reprints in Economics 3374, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  70. Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Credit Spread and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  71. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
  72. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
  73. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
  74. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  75. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
  76. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
  77. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  79. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.
  80. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
  82. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
  83. John B. Taylor, 2010. "Getting back on track: macroeconomic policy lessons from the financial crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 165-176.
  84. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
  85. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  86. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Miquel Colobran)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.