(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis
We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate spreads and asset price inflation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also ikely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis. Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth, consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009.
"Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?,"
NBER Working Papers
14678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 573-577, May.
- Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004.
"A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
- David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2005.
"How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2003. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Gruen, David & Plumb, Michael & Stone, Andrew, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," MPRA Paper 833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2003. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007.
"How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "How the ECB and the US Fed Set Interest Rates," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 269/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2003.
"Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective,"
84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- JesÃºs Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
15289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
- Paul Grauwe & Thomas Mayer & Karel Lannoo, 2008. "Lessons from the Financial Crisis: New Rules for Central Banks and Credit Rating Agencies?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(5), pages 256-266, September.
- DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, "undated".
"Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy,"
- Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
- Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005.
"The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation,"
2005/14, Norges Bank.
- Garnier, Julien & Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 0546, European Central Bank.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001.
"Measuring the natural rate of interest,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009.
"Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 133, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2004.
"The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom,"
Bank of England working papers
224, Bank of England.
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442 Bank for International Settlements.
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2005.
"The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-307, December.
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the Euro area," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 56, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
- Clemens Jobst, 2009. "Monetary Policy Implementation during the Crisis in 2007 to 2008," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 53–77.
- Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
- International Monetary Fund, 2009. "How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/204, International Monetary Fund.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.