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Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?

  • Fuhrer, Jeff
  • Tootell, Geoff

Since the stock market boom of the 1990s, many have suggested the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adopted an unannounced policy goal of supporting equity values. This paper offers a new approach to disentangle the relationship between changes in equity values and monetary policy. Specifically, the paper distinguishes the FOMC's reaction to forecasts of traditional goal variables, which may depend on equity prices, from the FOMC's independent reaction to changes in equity prices. By using actual forward-looking variables examined by the FOMC before each action (the "Greenbook" forecasts), the authors find little evidence to support the proposition that the FOMC responds to stock values, except as filtered through a forecast of accepted monetary policy goal variables.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 796-805

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:796-805
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Potts, Glenn T & Luckett, Dudley G, 1978. "Policy Objectives of the Federal Reserve System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 525-34, August.
  2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  4. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  5. Abrams, Richard K & Froyen, Richard & Waud, Roger N, 1980. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, Consistent Expectations, and the Burns Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 30-42, February.
  6. Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "The accuracy of two forecasting techniques: some evidence and an interpretation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 20-31.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  10. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hakes, David R, 1990. "The Objectives and Priorities of Monetary Policy under Different Federal Reserve Chairmen," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 327-37, August.
  12. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
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