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Has the Fed responded to house and stock prices? A time-varying analysis

Author

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  • Knut Are Aastveit

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Francesco Furlanetto

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Francesca Loria

Abstract

In this paper we use a structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to asset prices and whether this response has changed over time. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to inflation, the output gap, house prices and stock prices. We find some time variation in the coefficients for house prices and stock prices but fairly stable coefficients over time for inflation and the output gap. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the US i) attached a positive weight to real house price growth but lowered it prior to the crisis and eventually raised it again and ii) only episodically took real stock price growth into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2017. "Has the Fed responded to house and stock prices? A time-varying analysis," Working Paper 2017/1, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2017_01
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2017/12017/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    4. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. I-Chun Tsai & Che-Chun Lin, 2019. "Variations and Influences of Connectedness among US Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 27-58.
    6. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Imran H. Shah & Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero, 2021. "Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank's inflation targeting framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2022-2043, April.
    8. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank.
    9. Ifrim, Adrian, 2023. "Stock Price Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy under Imperfect Knowledge," EconStor Preprints 268307, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    11. Warapong Wongwachara & Bovonvich Jindarak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Sophon Tunyavetchakit & Chutipha Klungjaturavet, 2018. "Integrating Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A New Framework," PIER Discussion Papers 100, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters; Monetary policy; House prices; Stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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