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Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?

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Abstract

The Taylor rule establishes a simple linear relation between the interest rate, inflation and output gap. However, this relation may not be so simple. To get a deeper understanding of central banks' behaviour, this paper asks whether central banks are indeed following a linear Taylor rule or, instead, a nonlinear rule. At the same time, it also analyses whether that rule can be augmented with a financial conditions index containing information from some asset prices and financial variables. A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function is employed in the estimation of the linear and nonlinear models. A smooth transition model is used to estimate the nonlinear rule. The results indicate that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England tend to follow a nonlinear Taylor rule, but not the Federal Reserve of the United States. In particularm those two central banks tend to react to inflation only when inflation is above or outside their targets. Moreover, our evidence suggests that the European Central Bank is targeting financial conditions, contrary to the other two central banks. This lack of attention to the financial conditions might have made the United States and the United Kingdom more vulnerable to the recent credit crunch than the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:19/2008
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    Cited by:

    1. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    2. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte
      [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]
      ," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011. "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1174-1185, May.
    5. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    6. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    7. Mandler, Martin, 2011. "Threshold effects in the monetary policy reaction function of the Deutsche Bundesbank," MPRA Paper 32430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ruthira Naraidoo & Ivan Paya, 2010. "Forecasting Monetary Rules in South Africa," Working Papers 201007, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? – Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    10. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
    13. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    14. FIodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian monetary policy respond to asset prices? Evidence from a structural model," MPRA Paper 28039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    15. Ruthira Naraidoo & Kasai Ndahiriwe, 2010. "Financial asset prices, linear and nonlinear policy rules. An In-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank," Working Papers 201006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Tuomas Peltonen & Ricardo Sousa & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2012. "Investment in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 97-119, August.
    17. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.
    18. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    19. Fiodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," MPRA Paper 27942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Daniel Komlan Fiodendji, 2012. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," Working Papers 1209E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    21. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    22. Komlan, Fiodendji, 2013. "The asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and the output gap: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 911-923.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; ECB monetary policy; Financial Conditions Index; Nonlinearity; Smooth transition regression models.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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