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Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice

Listed author(s):
  • Martin, Christopher

    (Brunel University)

  • Costas Milas

This paper estimates a simple structural model of monetary policy in the UK for 1963-2000, focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in 1992. Our main findings are: i) the adoption of inflation targets led to significant changes in monetary policy giving greater weight to inflation; (ii) monetary policy post-1992 is asymmetric as policy makers respond more to upward deviation of inflation away from the target; (iii) in the post-1992 period policymakers may be attempting to keep inflation within the range of 1.4%-2.6% rather than pursuing a point target of 2.5%; (iv) monetary policy is more responsive to inflation when it is further from the target.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 137.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:137
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  1. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
  3. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  6. Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England.
  7. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  10. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
  12. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  14. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  15. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
  16. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
  17. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
  19. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-350, August.
  20. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 1999. "Inflation zone targeting," Working Paper Series 0008, European Central Bank.
  21. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
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