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Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods


  • Kevin Lee
  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Kalvinder Shields


This paper provides a characterisation of UK and Australian monetary policy within a Taylor rule framework, accommodating uncertainties about the nature and duration of policy regimes in a flexible but easy-to-implement analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on a set of Taylor rules obtained through linear regression methods, but combined into a ‘meta’ rule using model averaging techniques. Using data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the meta Taylor rule provides a useful and detailed characterisation of monetary policies in the UK and Australia over the last thirty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2012. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1138, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1138

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kerry B. Hudson & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Understanding the Deviations of the Taylor Rule: A New Methodology with an Application to Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2014-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Anh Nguyen & Efthymios Pavlidis & David Alan Peel, 2016. "Modeling changes in U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 127876159, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Łukasz Goczek & Karol Partyka, 2016. "Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wydarzenia giełdowe," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 27-50.

    More about this item


    Taylor rule; real-time policy; model uncertainty; monetary policy in UK and Australia; interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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