Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods

This paper provides a characterisation of UK and Australian monetary policy within a Taylor rule framework, accommodating uncertainties about the nature and duration of policy regimes in a flexible but easy-to-implement analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on a set of Taylor rules obtained through linear regression methods, but combined into a ‘meta’ rule using model averaging techniques. Using data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the meta Taylor rule provides a useful and detailed characterisation of monetary policies in the UK and Australia over the last thirty years.