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The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?

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  • Horváth, Roman

Abstract

This paper examines the time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1--2006:09, estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over the sample period to levels comparable to those in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of the monetary policy stance based on the deviation of the actual interest rate from the estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as the change of the future inflation rate.
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  • Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:71-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.
    2. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    3. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence On Inflation-Targeting Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 593-630, April.
    4. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
    5. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.
    6. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    7. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    8. Capek Jan, 2015. "Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 15(1), pages 89-114, March.
    9. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
    10. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Roman Horvath, 2008. "Prediction Bias and Undershooting of the Inflation Target," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 5, pages 57-76 Czech National Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy neutral rate Taylor rule Time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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