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Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?

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  • M. FRÖMMEL
  • G. GARABEDIAN
  • F. SCHOBERT

Abstract

We estimate monetary policy rules for six central and eastern European countries (CEEC) during the period, when they prepared for membership to the EU and monetary union. By taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account and by introducing several new methodological features we significantly improve estimation results for monetary policy rules in CEEC. We find that in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland the focus of the interest rate setting behaviour switched from defending the peg to targeting inflation. For Slovakia, however, there still seemed to be on ongoing focus on the exchange rate. For Slovenia and only after a policy switch for Romania we find a solid relation with inflation as well.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Frömmel & G. Garabedian & F. Schobert, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/611, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/611
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Klacso, 2015. "The Effects of the Euro Area Entrance on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Slovakia in Light of the Global Economic Recession," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 55-83, January.
    2. Nojković, Aleksandra & Petrović, Pavle, 2015. "Monetary policy rule in inflation targeting emerging European countries: A discrete choice approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 577-595.
    3. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2017. "Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Inflation and Exchange Rate in Poland: Implications for Direct Inflation Targeting," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 545-560, December.
    4. Ziegler, Christina, 2012. "Monetary policy under alternative exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 104, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    5. Caraiani, Petre, 2013. "Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 233-246.
    6. Bogdan CAPRARU & Norel Ionut MOISE & Andrei RADULESCU, 2015. "The Monetary Policy Of The National Bank Of Romania In The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 16, pages 91-102, December.
    7. Regős, Gábor, 2013. "Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra [Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 670-702.
    8. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    9. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Post-Print halshs-00881359, HAL.
    10. Schepp, Zoltán & Abaligeti, Gallusz & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "Időben változó Taylor-szabály a hazai monetáris politika jellemzésére [A time-varying parameter Taylor rule for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-43.
    11. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Isabella Moder, 2016. "Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.
    12. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2014. "The impact of the recent global crisis on the prioritization of central banks final objectives. A structural approach in the context of Central and Eastern European states," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 51-76, September.
    13. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 87-97, November.
    14. Caldas Montes, Gabriel & Ferrari Ferreira, Caio, 2019. "Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 981-1004.
    15. Shinji Takagi & Vitalie Ciubotaru, 2013. "Putting the Pieces Together: The Moldovan Exchange Rate Policy Puzzle," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).
    16. Jens Klose, 2019. "Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output? Empirical Evidence for Four Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 31-49, January.
    17. Eswar Prasad & Boyang Zhang, 2015. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 21471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:fst:rfsisf:v:8:y:2023:i:14:p:84-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai & Andries, Alin Marius, 2013. "Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 151-159.
    20. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    21. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 523-541.
    22. Taro Ikeda, 2010. "Asymmetric Preferences for Monetary Policy Rules in the Visegrad Four and the Financial Crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2160-2188.
    23. POPESCU Iulian Vasile, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules For European Monetary Union Acceding Countries," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 108-122, August.
    24. Jaromír Kukal & Tran Van Quang, 2014. "A Monetary Policy Rule Based on Fuzzy Control in an Inflation Targeting Framework," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 290-314.
    25. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Ferreira, Caio Ferrari, 2020. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-87.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; Taylor rules; transition economies; CEEC; inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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