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Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993

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  • Bartolini, Leonardo
  • Prati, Alessandro

Abstract

We present a model of a “soft” exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate’s current level, thus allowing the rate to move within wide margins in the short run, but within narrow margins in the long run. For realistic parameters, soft target zones are significantly less vulnerable to speculative attacks than “hard” target zones. These predictions are consistent with the ERM’s experience and the abatement of speculative pressure in European markets since the bands’ widening in 1993.
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  • Bartolini, Leonardo & Prati, Alessandro, 1999. "Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-29, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:49:y:1999:i:1:p:1-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 228, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    3. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
    4. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2004:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
    7. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A soft target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20912, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    8. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
    9. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    10. Nissanke, Machiko, 2003. "Revenue Potential of the Currency Transaction Tax for Development Finance: A Critical Appraisal," WIDER Working Paper Series 081, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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