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Econometric Aspects of the Variance-Bound Tests: A Survey

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  • C. Gilles
  • S.F. Leroy

Abstract

We survey the variance-bounds tests of asset-price volatility, stressing the econometric aspects of these tests. The first variance-bounds tests of the present-value relation reported apparently striking evidence of excess volatility of asset prices. The statistical significance of the results, however, was either marginal or, in the case of model-free tests, impossible to assess. Moreover, the tests were soon criticized for a number of biases. Various other tests of the present-value relations were later developed, avoiding in different degrees the econometric problems attending the first-generation tests also found excess volatility, though sometimes of borderline statistical significance. This finding of excess volatility is robust and is difficult to explain within the representative-consumer, frictionless-market model. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.
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Suggested Citation

  • C. Gilles & S.F. Leroy, 1990. "Econometric Aspects of the Variance-Bound Tests: A Survey," Carleton Economic Papers 90-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 1991.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:90-07
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