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The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach

  • Jesús Rodríguez López


    (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal


    (Department of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona)

This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of the degree of exchange rate flexibility. We show that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature on target zones that previous models were not able to generate jointly, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

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Paper provided by Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06.22.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:06.22
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  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  8. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Vilasuso Jon & Cunningham Steve, 1996. "Tests for Nonlinearity in EMS Exchange Rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-16, October.
  10. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Rodríguez-López Jesús & Rodriguez Mendizabal Hugo, 2006. "How Tight Should One's Hands be Tied? Fear of Floating and the Credibility of Exchange Rate Regimes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, March.
  12. de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
  13. Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  15. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  16. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Forbes, C.S. & Kofman, P., 2000. "Bayesian Soft Target Zones," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  20. Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000. "Bayesian Target Zones," Research Paper Series 32, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  21. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  22. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  23. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road Towards A Honeymoon Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp771, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  26. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned," NBER Working Papers 4504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  29. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
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  39. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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