IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2003241.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?

Author

Listed:
  • Detken, Carsten
  • Gaspar, Ví­tor

Abstract

The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy directed at maintaining price stability. It is shown that the behaviour of the exchange rate depends on the structure of the economy and on the nature of the relevant shocks. In the case of very open economies the exchange rate will look quasi-fixed in response to shocks stemming from the international capital markets. It is also shown that the joined endogeneity of the interest rate and the exchange rate has important implications for the empirical testing of uncovered interest rate parity. JEL Classification: E58, E63, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003241
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp241.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 0089, European Central Bank.
    3. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-129, April.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    7. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1992. "Does the Forward Premium/Discount Help to Predict the Future Change in the Exchange Rate?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-140, May.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    13. Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-323, October.
    14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina," Working Papers 74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    16. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 0173, European Central Bank.
    17. Jürgen von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2005. "The choice of exchange rate regime: "An empirical analysis for transition economies" ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 679-703, October.
    18. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
    20. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    21. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2003. "Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment," Working Paper Series 227, European Central Bank.
    22. Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 3-21, Fall.
    23. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    24. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    25. Leslie Lipschitz & Alex Mourmouras & Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies; Master or Servant?," IMF Working Papers 02/11, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2003. "Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 9670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Edwards, Sebastian, 2002. "The great exchange rate debate after Argentina," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, December.
    28. Kugler, Peter, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, open interest rate parity and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 209-214, February.
    29. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
    30. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-334, May.
    31. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    32. Helene Poirson Ward, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Scott Barnhart & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Some answers to puzzles in testing unbiasedness in the foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 687-696.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Janet Gale Stotsky & Qianqian Zhang, 2015. "A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/195, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "A preliminary evaluation of monetary policy rules for Russia," Kiel Working Papers 1201, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    4. Marcelo Sanchez, 2008. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates: do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 43-61.
    5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates: do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank.
    6. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
    7. Rita Lourenço, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Picture Since the Emerging Market Crises in the Mid 1990s," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society.
    9. Bennett T. McCallum, 2014. "Monetary Policy in a Very Open Economy: Some Major Analytical Issues," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 27-60, February.
    10. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 9-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2006. "How does information affect the comovement between interest rates and exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 608, European Central Bank.
    13. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flexible exchange rates; managed floating; price stability; small open economy; uncovered interest rate parity;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.