IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/ausm04/306.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Ramon Maria-Dolores
  • Jose Garcia-Solanes

Abstract

One important issue for the new Member States (NMS) of the EU is the choice of the exchange rate regime that will allow them to participate successfully in the EMU process. Two exchange rate arrangements, compatible with the EU Treaty and ERM2 regulations, deserve special attention: flexible exchange rate regime and currency board with respect to the euro. The first regime (within stipulated bands), coupled with an inflation targeting scheme, agrees with the spirit of the European Commission and absorbs more easily supply shocks and Balassa Samuelson effects (which are present in real convergence and catching up episodes). It also prompts the process of nominal convergence. The second regime is suited to countries that need to foster the credibility of their monetary policy, but makes real adjustments to country-specific shocks and Balassa-Samuelson effects more difficult and/or costly. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of output and inflation under each exchange rate regime in NMS during the post EU accession and Maastricht phases. For that purpose, our model extends Gerlach and Smets (2000) and Detken and Gaspar (2003), icluding market distortions and three possible exchange rate regimes. In the empirical part of the paper we estimate SVAR models, following Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993) methodology, in order to extract variances and covariances between shocks to each NMS and to the euro zone and compute individual social losses under each exchange rate arrangement. We use monthly data on industrial production and CPI for eight NMS countries. Our main result is that the optimal choice varies depending on the institutional and structural features of each economy, and on the likely source and nature of economic shocks to which it is exposed with respect to the whole euro area. Interestingly, the results for each country seem to conform to the general prescriptions that one would derive from the theory of optimal currency areas

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/esAUSM04/up.23868.1077987445.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    5. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies; Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
    8. Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "The Effect of the ERM on Participating Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 330-356, June.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    10. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, March.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    12. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 216, European Central Bank.
    13. Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargment; exchange rate systems; SVAR; European monetary integration;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.