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A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?

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Abstract

We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area, eight new EU Member States (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), and two Southeastern European candidate countries (Bulgaria and Romania) which are expected to join the EU in 2007. Our meta-analysis suggests that several new Member States have already achieved a comparably high degree of synchronization with the euro area business cycle. We also find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. Finally, we show that Bulgaria and Romania also display a lower but still positive correlation of business cycles with Europe, although these countries have been increasingly disregarded in most recent publications.

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:2
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    1. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    2. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    3. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    4. Ivan Todorov & Nikolay Patonov, 2012. "A Few Regressions Onbusiness Cycle Synchronization Between Thenew Member States And The Euro Area," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 8(2), pages 9-22.

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