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Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment

  • Stefaan Ide


    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Philippe Moës


    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

In this paper, we use a SVAR model in order to study the asymmetry of growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries vis-à-vis the euro area over the years 1995-2003. The model combines two strands of the literature, the explanation in terms of country-specific and euro area shocks, and a further split between supply and demand shocks. The four structural shocks may all create asymmetries vis-à-vis the euro area. It appears that country-specific shocks are the main source of growth or inflation divergence, rather than the distinct way in which acceding countries react to euro area shocks. But whereas country-specific supply shocks are mainly responsible for growth divergence, country-specific demand shocks are mainly responsible for inflation asymmetry. Hence, a low asymmetry in terms of growth does not necessarily imply a low asymmetry in terms of inflation, although the latter is particularly important for countries aiming to join the euro area. There is some evidence that both asymmetries were on the fall over the last years of the sample.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 63.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200411-1
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  1. Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
  2. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "The euro goes East : Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," IMF Working Papers 02/222, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  8. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the accession countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  9. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2003. "Scope of asymmetries in the Euro area," Working Paper Document 37, National Bank of Belgium.
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