Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU
This paper tries to assess how costly it would be for the CEECs to peg their exchange rates to the Euro. We use three types of criteria: institutional (the Maastricht criteria); some measure of real convergence; and the Optimal Currency Area criteria. The institutional criteria seem to be an important impediment to an 'immediate' accession. There is also a lot more to do in terms of real convergence. Finally, the correlations of industrial production and unemployment cycles in the CEECs and the EU, or other reference countries, such as Germany, Greece, France and Portugal point towards a deeper integration of the CEECs with Germany than with the EU. This reflects the old ties Germany had and still has with Eastern countries and the likely key role Germany is going to play in the process of EU enlargement to Eastern Europe.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Anderson, Kym & Tyers, Rodney, 1993. "Implications of EC Expansion for European Agricultural Policies, Trade and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cheikbossian, G. & Maurel, M., 1997.
"The New Geography of Eastern European Trade,"
DELTA Working Papers
97-11, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 1998. "Pegging the CEECs Currencies to the Euro," Working Papers 1998-04, CEPII research center.
- Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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