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Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition


  • Halpern, László
  • Wyplosz, Charles


This paper tests two central assumptions regarding transforming economies: that the initial exchange rates were strongly undervalued and that the subsequent evolution of the real exchange rate was both a response to the initial undervaluation and an equilibrium real appreciation. The econometric results support both assumptions. The degree of initial overvaluation varies from country to country, ranging from very little in the case of Hungary to more than 100% in most other countries. It is estimated using a sample of 49 high-and middle-income countries, with five observations per country (1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990). The subsequent process of equilibrium appreciation is estimated with pooled data for six countries (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) covering the period after inflation stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1145

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Macroeconomic Policies on Output in the Czech Republic: An Application of Romer's IS-MP-IA Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(4), pages 339-345.
    2. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
    3. Jacek Rostowski, 1999. "The Approach to EU and EMU Membership: the Implications for Macroeconomic Policy in Applicant Countries," CASE-CEU Working Papers 0026, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Spinanger, Dean & Brücker, Herbert & Engerer, Hella & Lodahl, Maria & Schrettl, Wolfram & Schrooten, Mechthild & Gabrisch, Hubert & Linne, Thomas & Sigmund, Pet, 1997. "Die wirtschaftliche Lage Rußlands: Wirtschaftspolitik muß jetzt endlich Wachstumserfolge vorweisen. Elfter Bericht," Kiel Discussion Papers 308, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Pelin Oge Guney & Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2012. "Time Series Behaviour of the Real Interest Rates in Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20125, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    6. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318.
    7. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
    9. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1998. "Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995-98," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 389-396, November.
    10. Martin Melecký & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 14(1), pages 105-121, May.
    11. László Halpern, 1996. "Real exchange rate and exchange rate policy in Hungary," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 211-228, May.
    12. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Vincze, János, 1997. "A stabilizáció hatása az árak és a termelés közötti összefüggésekre
      [The impact of stabilisation on the interrelations between prices and production]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 273-295.
    14. French-German Economic Forum, 1999. "Reduction of Working Time," Working Papers 1999-13, CEPII research center.
    15. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:24:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hervé Joly & Céline Prigent & Nicolas Sobczak, 1996. "Le taux de change réel d'équilibre : une introduction," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 1-21.
    17. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations for Slovakia: application of an extended Mundell--Fleming model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 289-292, September.
    18. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Meleck, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 739, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    19. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P., 1997. "Financing the transition: Risks and benefits of integrating into the international capital market," Kiel Working Papers 818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Sandrine Cazes & Bruno Coquet & Jacky Fayolle & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Lerais, 1996. "Elargir l'Union européenne aux pays d'Europe centrale et orientale," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 57(1), pages 135-180.
    21. Yuhsing, 2006. "Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 53(2), pages 249-259, June.
    22. Domenico Mario Nuti, 1996. "Inflation, interest and exchange rates in the transition 1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 137-158, May.

    More about this item


    Central and Eastern Europe; Exchange Rate; Overvaluation; Transition;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • P41 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies


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