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Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the accession countries

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko
  • Korhonen, Iikka

Abstract

We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between the euro area, the EU accession countries and also the present EU countries.Shocks are recovered from estimated structural vector autoregressive models.We find that some advanced accession countries have quite high correlation with the euro area.However, even for many high income accession countries the degree of correlation remains low.Also, in the 90s many EU countries seemed to have much higher correlation with the core euro area countries than in previous decades.Continuing integration within the EU seems to have aligned business cycles of the countries as well. Keywords: optimal currency area, monetary union, EU enlargement JEL classification numbers: E32, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the accession countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2001_014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2002. "Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 458, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Hefeker, Carsten, 2004. "Uncertainty, Wage Setting and Decision Making in a Monetary Union," HWWA Discussion Papers 272, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Kalman Dezseri, 2003. "Business-cycle development in Hungary and Europe - the consequences of EU and EMU accession for Hungary's labour market," IWE Working Papers 136, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies- Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    5. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    6. K. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Sources Of Exchange Rate Volatility In The European Transition Economies. Effects Of Economic Crisis Revealed," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 270-282.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    8. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2005. "Real and monetary convergence between the European Union's core and recent member countries: A rolling cointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 249-270, January.
    9. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2007:i:5-6:p:45-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Süppel, Ralph, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    11. Steven K. Buigut & Neven T. Valev, 2006. "Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 586-603, November.
    12. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    13. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hefeker, Carsten, 2003. "Ressourcenverteilung in der EU: Eine polit-ökonomische Perspektive," HWWA Discussion Papers 252, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    15. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Synchronisation des chocs d'offre et de demande dans la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO)
      [Synchronization of supply and demand shocks in the Economic Community of We
      ," MPRA Paper 95291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
    17. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.
    18. Natacha Gilson, 2006. "How to be Well Shod to Absorb Shocks? Shock Synchronization and Joining the Euro Zone," CESifo Working Paper Series 1878, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Matkowski, Z. & Prochniak, M., 2004. "Real Economic Convergence in the EU Accession Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(3), pages 5-38.
    20. Vollmer Uwe, 2004. "Wer entscheidet über Leitzinssatzänderungen?: Zur optimalen Verfassung des Zentralbankrats in einer Währungsunion," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 55(1), pages 287-312, January.
    21. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2002. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence within transition economies and to the European Union: Evidence from panel data," ZEI Working Papers B 21-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    22. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    23. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:48:y:2017:i:1:p:1-44 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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