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Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan

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  • Igor Velickovski

Abstract

This article approaches to the optimum currency area from the empirical side by investigating the costs of adoption of a single currency for small, open and euroized Western Balkan countries (WBC). Using several econometric techniques, this study attempts to answer three questions relevant for monetary integration of the WBC and similar transition countries: What are the constraints on an independent monetary policy? What is the need for operating an independent monetary policy? and What is the ability to conduct an independent monetary policy? The constraints on independent monetary policy in most of the WBC at this stage are relatively serious because of high levels of openness and euroization. They limit the ability of the central bank, which is oriented to price stability, to use the nominal exchange rate for achieving other goals (for example, output stabilization). Regarding the second question, the results from structural VAR framework suggest a low synchronization for supply and demand shocks between the WBC and the euro area, indicating potentially high costs of losing independent monetary policy. Furthermore, the results from Kalman filter technique inform that the shock convergence process is slow or absent in the WBC vis-à-vis the euro area. Regarding the last question, the results from cointegration and VAR analysis suggest that the ability to conduct an independent monetary policy, assessed by analyzing the interest rate channel as the most prominent transmission channel in the euro area, is relatively weak in the WBC. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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  • Igor Velickovski, 2013. "Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-156, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:137-156
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0612-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Branimir Jovanović & Marjan Petreski, 2012. "Hemlock for policy response: Monetary policy, exchange rates and labour unions in SEE and CIS during the crisis," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 104, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Antje Hildebrandt & Isabella Moder, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization between the Western Balkans and the European Union," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-25.
    3. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.
    4. Igor Velickovski & Daniela Mamuchevska, 2019. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Three EU Candidate Countries: The Case of Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia," Issues in Economics and Business, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 37-54, December.
    5. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 309-332.
    6. Karlo Kotarac & Davor Kunovac & Rafael Ravnik, 2017. "Coherence of Business Cycles and Economic Shocks between Croatia and Euro Area Member States," Working Papers 53, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    7. Bošnjak Mile & Kordić Gordana & Bilas Vlatka, 2018. "Determinants Of Financial Euroisation In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(218), pages 9-22, July – Se.
    8. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:081 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    10. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimum currency area; Monetary policy; Shock synchronization; Interest rate pass-through; E42; E52; E32; E43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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