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EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs

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  • Ian Babetskii

Abstract

There are two opposite points of view on the link between economic integration and business cycle synchronization. De Grauwe (1997) classifies these competing views as 'The European Commission View' and 'The Krugman View'. According to the European Commission (1990), closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. On the other hand, for Krugman (1993) closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries which have experienced a notable increase in trade openness and economic integration with the European Union during the past decade, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data. This is done by confronting estimated time-varying coefficients of supply and demand shock asymmetry with indicators of trade intensity and exchange rates. We find that (i) an increase in trade intensity leads to higher symmetry of demand shocks; the effect of integration on supply shock asymmetry varies from country to country; (ii) a decrease in exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on demand shock convergence. The results for demand shocks can be interpreted in favor of 'The European Commission View', also known as the endogeneity argument by Frankel and Rose (1998) in the OCA criteria discussion, according to which trade links reduce asymmetries between countries. Overall, our results support Kenen's (2001) argument that the impact of trade integration on shock asymmetry depends on the type of shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Babetskii, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs," Working Papers 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2004/02
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwpno22004.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.
    2. Vincent Aussilloux & Michaël Pajot & Mathilde Maurel, 2003. "Enjeux commerciaux de l'élargissement de l'Union européenne ; suivi d'un commentaire de Mathilde Maurel," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 363(1), pages 235-265.
    3. Ivan Todorov, 2012. "European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 131-152.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    5. Bojeşteanu, Elena & Manu, Ana Simona, 2011. "Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro
      [Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Roman
      ," MPRA Paper 31295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Igor Velickovski, 2013. "Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-156, August.
    7. Michal Bencik, 2011. "Business cycle synchronisation between the V4 countries and the euro area," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    8. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju.
    9. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 25-48, December.
    10. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; business cycle; trade; OCA (optimal currency area);

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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