Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro
[Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Romania and the euro zone]
The paper aims to evaluate the degree of business cycle synchronization and similarity of economic structures between Romania and the euro zone from the perspective of European Monetary Union (EMU) integration. Despite the fact that the euro adoption can generate benefits for the Romanian economy, this process can entail major economic risks primarily related to the loss of two of the most important macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms, namely the independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rate. The cost – benefit ratio depends on the compatibility of economic structures and business cycles between Romania and the euro zone, on the importance of the idiosyncratic shocks for the Romanian macroeconomic fluctuations, on the degree commercial integration etc. According to the results of this paper, there has been significant progress related to the convergence of the Romanian business cycle with that of the euro zone, however, with regard to structural convergence, the empirical evidence reveals a widening of the gap vis-à-vis the euro area during the transition period.
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