Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro
[Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Romania and the euro zone]
The paper aims to evaluate the degree of business cycle synchronization and similarity of economic structures between Romania and the euro zone from the perspective of European Monetary Union (EMU) integration. Despite the fact that the euro adoption can generate benefits for the Romanian economy, this process can entail major economic risks primarily related to the loss of two of the most important macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms, namely the independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rate. The cost – benefit ratio depends on the compatibility of economic structures and business cycles between Romania and the euro zone, on the importance of the idiosyncratic shocks for the Romanian macroeconomic fluctuations, on the degree commercial integration etc. According to the results of this paper, there has been significant progress related to the convergence of the Romanian business cycle with that of the euro zone, however, with regard to structural convergence, the empirical evidence reveals a widening of the gap vis-à-vis the euro area during the transition period.
|Date of creation:||06 Jun 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blake, Andrew P. & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo, 1998.
"Filtered least squares and measurement error,"
Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 163-168, May.
- Andrew Blake, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 130, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2007. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
- Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 11, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2006. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers 0604, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
- Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the Euro area and the accession countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," Macroeconomics 0209006, EconWPA.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1958, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Tenreyro, Silvana & Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Scholarly Articles 4553033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar, 2003. "Restructuring the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 1084, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "The euro goes East : Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Iikka Korhonen & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The euro goes East. Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEEs," Macroeconomics 0305007, EconWPA.
- C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
- Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 212-229, June.
- Ian Babetskii & Laurence Boone & Mathilde Maurel, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries," Post-Print halshs-00468626, HAL.
- Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
- Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0810, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do Trade and Financial Linkages Foster Business cycle Synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0801, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004. "Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Dumitru, Ionut, 2009. "Adoptarea euro in Romania
[Euro adoption in Romania]," MPRA Paper 18612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
- Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
- Ian Babetskii, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs," Working Papers 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.