IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment

  • Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús
  • Fernández-Amador, Octavio

We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand and supply shocks as well as of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU). This analysis allows us to evaluate the patterns of cyclical comovement in EMU and compare them to the cyclical performance of the new members of the European Union (EU) and other OECD countries. We make use of sigma-convergence methods to identify synchronization patterns in business cycles. The Eurozone has converged to a stable lower level of dispersion across business cycles during the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The new EU members are relatively well synchronized with the EMU, and an enlargement of the EMU to 22 members would not significantly decrease its optimality as a currency area. There is evidence for some Europe-specific characteristics as compared to global comovements in business cycles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560613000752
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 239-259

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:239-259
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  3. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1994. "Testing the Convergence Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 576-79, August.
  4. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
  5. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
  6. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.
  7. Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  8. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
  9. Mark M. Spiegel, 2008. "Monetary and financial integration in the EMU: Push or pull?," Working Paper Series 2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Working Paper Series 0970, European Central Bank.
  12. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  13. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  14. P J Perez & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 29, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  15. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, EconWPA.
  16. G�rard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
  17. Huchet, Marilyne, 2003. "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-178, February.
  18. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Working Papers 94/42, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
  20. Pavlos Petroulas, 2006. "The Effect of the Euro on Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 48, Bank of Greece.
  21. Masten, Arjana Brezigar & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-313, March.
  22. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  23. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.
  24. Harris Dellas & George S.Tavlas, 2009. "An Optimum-Currency-Area Odyssey," Working Papers 102, Bank of Greece.
  25. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  26. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  27. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  28. Lane, Philip R., 2005. "Global bond portfolios and EMU," Working Paper Series 0553, European Central Bank.
  29. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
  30. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
  31. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
  32. James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004. "Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  33. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & M. Soliman, Alaa, 2009. "The Asymmetric Effects of a Common Monetary Policy in Europe," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 455-475.
  34. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2006. "Are labour markets in the new member states sufficiently flexible for EMU?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1393-1407, May.
  35. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  36. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2015. "Mundell, the Euro, and the World Dollar Standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 450-459.
  37. Jelle Brouwer & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2007. "The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-077/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  38. Martin Carree & Luuk Klomp, 1997. "Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 683-686, November.
  39. Kocenda, Evzen, 1999. "Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. n/a, 1997. "Filtered least squares and measurement error," NIESR Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  41. Keller, Wolfgang, 2002. "International Technology Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Wälti, Sébastien, 2011. "Stock market synchronization and monetary integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 96-110, February.
  43. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  44. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  45. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  46. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2009. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Working Paper Series 1079, European Central Bank.
  47. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  48. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
  49. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
  50. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  51. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  52. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  53. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
  54. De Grauwe, Paul & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 0468, European Central Bank.
  55. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:239-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.