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Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment

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  • Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma

    ()

  • Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador

    ()

Abstract

We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand shocks and of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU). This analysis allows us to evaluate the patterns of cyclical comovement in EMU and put them in contrast to the cyclical performance of the new members of the EU and other OECD countries. We use the methodology put forward in Crespo-Cuaresma and Fern?ndez-Amador (2010), which makes use of sigma-convergence methods to identify synchronization patterns in business cycles. The Eurozone has converged to a stable lower level of dispersion across business cycles during the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The new EU members have also experienced a strong pattern of convergence from 1998 to 2005, when a strong divergence trend appears. An enlargement of the EMU to 22 members would not decrease its optimality as a currency area. There is evidence for some European idiosyncrasy as opposed to a world-wide comovement.

Suggested Citation

  • Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-25, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2010-25
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    2. Baas, Timo & Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union," GLO Discussion Paper Series 160, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Maria Jesús Delgado-Rodriguez & Sonia De lucas-Santos, 2013. "Testing cyclical convergence with the factor model in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2245-2250.
    4. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju.
    5. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
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    7. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region's Integration Projects," Working Papers halshs-01069353, HAL.
    8. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.
    9. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
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    11. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
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    13. Carstensen, K. & Salzmann, L., 2017. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 134-161.
    14. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    15. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.

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    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; structural VAR; demand shocks; European Monetary Union;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

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