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The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    ([1] Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division, PO Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria, [2] Comenius University Bratislava, Department of Economic and Financial Models, Slovakia)

  • Iikka Korhonen

    (Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland, PO Box 160, 00101 Helsinki, Finland.)

Abstract

We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between current countries in the euro area and European Union (EU) accession candidates from 1993/1995 to 2002. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural vector autoregressive models of output growth and inflation. Notably, the economic slowdown between 2000 and 2002 increased heterogeneity of business cycles between the euro area and acceding counties. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of underlying shocks with the euro area and conclude that continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries in a manner similar to the synchronisation of supply and demand shocks that we document for the EU in the 1990s. Comparative Economic Studies (2004) 46, 45–62. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100040

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:46:y:2004:i:1:p:45-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Bojeşteanu, Elena & Manu, Ana Simona, 2011. "Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro [Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Roman," MPRA Paper 31295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    4. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2010. "Business cycle synchronization of the euro area with the new and negotiating member countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 288-306.
    5. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    7. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Wojcik, Cezary, 2006. "Measuring monetary independence: Evidence from a group of new EU member countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 24-43, March.
    9. Sõrg, Mart, 2004. "Estonian Monetary System: Reconstruction, Performance, and Future Prospects," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 11/2004, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    10. Tanja Broz, 2007. "The Application Of Optimum Currency Area Criteria To Croatia," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(9), pages 7-19, November.
    11. Sandrine Levasseur, 2008. "Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period," Working Papers hal-00973040, HAL.
    12. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Davor Kunovac, 2020. "Twentieth Anniversary of the Euro: Why are Some Countries Still Not Willing to Join? Economists’ View," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 242-262, June.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    14. Nchor, Dennis, 2020. "Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe : Evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(54), pages .16(1-19).
    15. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    16. Irena Vodenska & Lou Chitkushev, 2013. "Impact of Euro Adoption on Emerging European Countries," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(1), pages 49-70.
    17. E.Tsanana & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "The issue of convergence: New empirical evidence for the Central Eastern Europe area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 53-62.
    18. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    19. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
    20. Tanja Broz, 2008. "The Introduction of the Euro in Central and Eastern European Countries - Is it Economically Justifiable?," Working Papers 0801, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    21. Nabil Ben Arfa, 2009. "Analysis of Shocks Affecting Europe: EMU and some Central and Eastern Acceding Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 21-38, March.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6141 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    24. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment of CESEE countries during the crisis," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence, chapter 10, pages 147-169, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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