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Convergence in Output in Transition Economies Central & Eastern Europe, 1970-1995

Author

Listed:
  • Saul Estrin
  • Geovanni Urga

Abstract

In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time varying parameters procedure to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of convergence within the communist block, which brings into question the effectiveness of policies to reduce differentials in income per capita across the region under the communists. There is also little evidence of convergence with respect to the West, either 1970-1990 or under the early years of reform are included, 1970-1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Saul Estrin & Geovanni Urga, 1997. "Convergence in Output in Transition Economies Central & Eastern Europe, 1970-1995," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 30, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:1997-30
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    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39420/3/wp30.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    4. Ivo Bićanić & Vladimir Gligorov & Ivan Krastev, 2003. "State, Public Goods and Reform," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 29, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    6. Yutaka Kurihara, 2006. "Is Apec Suitable For Currency Union?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(03), pages 325-334.
    7. Joan Costa Font & Joan Batalla Bejerano, 1998. "Eastern European Countries and the EMU: departure situation and transition strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa98p192, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2001. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," Transition Economics Series 20, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Seamus Mcguinness & Maura Sheehan, 1998. "Regional convergence in the UK, 1970-1995," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(10), pages 653-658.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Malinen Tuomas & Nyberg Peter & Koskenkylä Heikki & Miettinen Sami & Ala-Peijari Jukka & Törnqvist Stefan & Berghäll Elina & Mellin Ilkka, 2018. "How to Leave the Eurozone: The Case of Finland," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth models; transition economies; unit roots; time series test; kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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