IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain

  • Martin Wagner
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

In this paper we discuss the necessity for an indirect approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). The necessity for an indirect approach arises for two reasons. First, the ongoing structural changes in the transition economies imply that their growth process is not yet adequately described by the long-run growth forces as identified by (neoclassical) growth theory. Second, their upcoming European Union membership has to be taken into account in growth projections. The indirect approach proposed in this paper is to base the growth projections for the CEEC10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. Thus, in effect we propose a calibration approach. Our study differs from previous studies that employ an indirect approach in two ways. First, we estimate growth equations for the EU and not for a large world-wide country data set that contains many heterogeneous countries that are essentially unrelated to the CEECs. Second, we assess the uncertainty inherent in growth projections by estimating a variety of economically meaningful equations and by specifying a variety of plausible scenarios for the explanatory variables. This results in distributions of projected growth rates, which allow for an uncertainty analysis. Besides growth rate distributions also convergence times distributions are computed

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.vwl.unibe.ch/papers/dp/dp0403.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp0403.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0403
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Schanzeneckstr. 1, PF 8573, CH-3001 Bern

Phone: 0041 31 631 45 06
Fax: 41 31 631 37 83
Web page: http://www.vwi.unibe.ch/content/publikationen/index_eng.html

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  2. Baumol, William J & Wolff, Edward N, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1155-59, December.
  3. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  4. Blanchard, O & Kremer, M, 1996. "Disorganization," Working papers 96-30, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  6. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  8. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  10. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nauro Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 229, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543.
  13. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1992. "Regional Growth and Migration: A Japan-U.S. Comparison," NBER Working Papers 4038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  16. Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Ben-David, Dan, 1995. "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
  21. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
  22. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Glusstein-Gerber)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.