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International Output Convergence: Evidence from an AutoCorrelation Function Approach

This paper uses an AutoCorrelation Function approach to develop new tests for international output convergence. Using per capita GDP for 15 OECD countries observed over a century, we find that the hypothesis of conditional convergence is unsupported; that, the United States apart, the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamics of OECD economies; and that these economies do not behave like a club.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2006_20.

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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2006_20
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  1. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
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  6. Giovanni Caggiano & Leone Leonida, . "A note on the empirics of the neoclassical growth model," Working Papers 2006_2, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. B. Verspagen & G. Silverberg, 2000. "A note on Michelacci and Zaffaroni, long memory, and time series of economic growth," Working Papers 00.17, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
  8. Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  10. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 749-779.
  11. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  12. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 1999. "International evidence on shock persistence: structural change, nonlinearities and subsample robustness," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 499-507.
  13. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Technology and Convergence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1037-44, July.
  14. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
  15. Fabio Canova, 1997. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach," Economics Working Papers 404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
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  17. Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Karim M. Abadir & A. M. Robert Taylor, . "On the Definitions of (Co-)Integration," Discussion Papers 97/19, Department of Economics, University of York.
  21. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  22. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
  23. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  24. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 1350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
  26. Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 1996. "Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Working Papers 9637, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 1996.
  27. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  28. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
  29. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
  30. Jochonia S Mathunjwa & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/590, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  31. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Memory and infrequent breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 29-41, January.
  32. Durlauf, S.M. & Johnson, P.A., 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behavior," Working papers 9419r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  33. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Dimitris N. Politis & Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2004. "Inference for Autocorrelations in the Possible Presence of a Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 251-263, 03.
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