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Euro area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?

Listed author(s):
  • Klaus, Benjamin
  • Ferroni, Filippo

We study the business cycle properties of the four largest euro area economies in the wake of the recent recession episodes. The analysis is based on the factors estimated from a multi-country and multi-sector data-rich environment. We measure alikeness of business cycles by studying the synchronization of up and down phases, the convergence properties of country fluctuations towards the euro area cycles and the contribution of the euro area factor to national GDP volatilities. While the economic fluctuations of the four euro area member states were similar before the global financial turmoil, we gather compelling evidence of an asymmetric behaviour of Spanish fluctuations relative to the euro area one. JEL Classification: C51, E32, O52

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File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1819.en.pdf
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1819.

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Date of creation: Jun 2015
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151819
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