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Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

Several industrialised countries have had a similar inflation experience in the past 30 years, with inflation high and volatile in the 1970s and the 1980s but low and stable in the most recent period. We explore the dynamics of inflation in these countries via a time-varying factor model. This statistical model is used to describe movements in inflation that are idiosyncratic or country specific and those that are common across countries. In addition, we investigate how comovement has varied across the sample period. Our results indicate that there has been a decline in the level, persistence and volatility of inflation across our sample of industrialised countries. In addition, there has been a change in the degree of comovement, with the level and persistence of national inflation rates moving more closely together since the mid-1980s.

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6767
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    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    2. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    3. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(1), pages 168-195, January.
    5. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2011. "Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Bank of England working papers 410, Bank of England.
    6. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    7. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach," Working Papers 13-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    9. Vito Polito & Peter Spencer, "undated". "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Discussion Papers 11/21, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
    11. Filippo Ferroni & Benjamin Klaus, 2015. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3791-3815, July.
    12. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    13. Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Global Dimension of Inflation – Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 103-122, February.
    14. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    15. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "The global component of inflation volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
    17. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    18. Özer Karagedikli & Haroon Mumtaz & Misa Tanaka, 2010. "All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
    20. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Papers No 3/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor model; Low inflation; monetary policy; time variation;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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