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Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model

  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Surico, Paolo

Several industrialised countries have had a similar inflation experience in the past 30 years, with inflation high and volatile in the 1970s and the 1980s but low and stable in the most recent period. We explore the dynamics of inflation in these countries via a time-varying factor model. This statistical model is used to describe movements in inflation that are idiosyncratic or country specific and those that are common across countries. In addition, we investigate how comovement has varied across the sample period. Our results indicate that there has been a decline in the level, persistence and volatility of inflation across our sample of industrialised countries. In addition, there has been a change in the degree of comovement, with the level and persistence of national inflation rates moving more closely together since the mid-1980s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6767.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6767
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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
  2. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
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