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Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy

  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    ()

    (Monetary Assessment and Strategy, Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

The dynamics of the US economy are modelled using a time-varying structural vector autoregression that incorporates information from the yield curve. We find important changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the federal funds rate. In addition our results suggest a change in the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level of the yield curve. Shocks to the level of the yield curve account for the persistence of the federal funds rate. We use our time-varying model provides to revisit the evidence on the expectations hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 23.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0023
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  1. Carriero, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Kaminska, Iryna, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
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  6. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 0746, European Central Bank.
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  10. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
  12. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  17. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
  18. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  19. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
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  21. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  22. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  23. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, August.
  24. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  25. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2006. "Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  27. Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Discussion of Cogley and Sargent's "Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S."," Working Paper 2003-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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