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Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations

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  • Clark, Todd E.
  • Davig, Troy

Abstract

The level and volatility of survey-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have come down dramatically over the past several decades. To capture these changes in inflation dynamics, we embed both short- and long-term expectations into a medium-scale VAR model with stochastic volatility. The model estimates attribute most of the marked decline in the volatility of expectations to smaller shocks to long-run inflation expectations. According to our estimates, the volatility of shocks plummeted in the early to mid-1980s, moved to a somewhat higher level that prevailed for much of the 1990s, and then declined to and remained at very low levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:7:p:981-999
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    Cited by:

    1. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
    2. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    3. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 477-507, April.
    4. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nason, Jason M. & Smith, Gregor W., 2013. "Measuring the Slowly Evolving Trend in US Inflation with Professional Forecasts," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274641, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    6. Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Historical decompositions for nonlinear vector autoregression models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
    8. Virginia Queijo von Heideken & Ferre De Graeve, 2012. "Fiscal policy in contemporary DSGE models," 2012 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Davis, Scott & Mack, Adrienne, 2013. "Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
    10. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
    12. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    13. Kim, Jerim & Kim, Bara & Moon, Kyoung-Sook & Wee, In-Suk, 2012. "Valuation of power options under Heston's stochastic volatility model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1796-1813.
    14. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    15. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    16. Volha Audzei, 2016. "Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding," Working Papers 2016/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    17. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Reverse Kalman filtering U.S. inflation with sticky professional forecasts," Working Papers 13-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Peneva, Ekaterina V. & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Henzel, Steffen R., 2013. "Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-185.
    21. Nautz, Dieter & Netsunajew, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Short and in the Long Run," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Davis, J. Scott, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Apr 2014.
    23. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 1218, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    24. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
    25. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:202-213 is not listed on IDEAS

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