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Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices




From Bayesian estimates of a vector autoregression that allows for both coefficient drift and stochastic volatility, we obtain the following three results. First, beginning in approximately 1975, the responsiveness of core inflation to changes in energy prices in the United States fell rapidly and remains muted. Second, this decline in the passthrough of energy inflation to core prices has been sustained through a recent period of markedly higher volatility of shocks to energy inflation. Finally, reduced energy inflation passthrough has persisted in the face of monetary policy that became less responsive to energy inflation starting around 1985. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

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  • Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:7:p:1419-1433

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    Cited by:

    1. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:261-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    4. Martin Fukac, 2011. "Have rising oil prices become a greater threat to price stability?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 27-53.
    5. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:247-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Michelle, Gilmartin, 2016. "A note on the identification and transmission of energy demand and supply shocks," MPRA Paper 76186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation:A Cross-Country Analysis," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Tian, Shuairu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Time-varying price shock transmission and volatility spillover in foreign exchange, bond, equity, and commodity markets: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-171.
    10. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
    11. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2012. "The dynamics of UK and US inflation expectations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3120-3133.
    12. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:5:p:563-579 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane M. & Schmidt, Vincent A., 2012. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
    15. Yasser Abdih & Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low; Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 16/124, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    17. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Li, Huajiao & Chen, Zhihua & Feng, Sida & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 265-278.
    18. Peneva, Ekaterina V. & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    21. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    22. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:133-141 is not listed on IDEAS

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