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Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

Listed author(s):
  • Fabio Canova
  • Luca Gambetti

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in output growth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule in a time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policy shocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time, but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflation and output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increase in the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policy in the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

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File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/918.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 918.

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Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision: Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:918
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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  8. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, "undated". "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Michael S. Hanson, 2006. "Varying Monetary Policy Regimes: A Vector Autoregressive Investigation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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  13. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2005. "The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?," Economics Working Papers 921, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
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  18. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  20. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  23. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
  24. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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