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Monetary Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy


  • Canova, Fabio


This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and the changes experienced by the US economy using a small scale New Keynesian model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques and the stability of policy parameter estimates and of the transmission of policy shocks examined. The model fits well the data and produces forecasts comparable or superior to those of alternative specifications. The parameters of the policy rule, the variance and the transmission of policy shocks have been remarkably stable. The parameters of the Phillips curve and of the Euler equations are varying.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5467

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Petrova, Katerina, 2016. "A time varying DSGE model with financial frictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 690-716.
    2. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 2012. "Changing patterns of fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 845-873.
    3. Blake, Andrew P & Markovic, Bojan, 2008. "The conduct of global monetary policy and domestic stability," Bank of England working papers 353, Bank of England.
    4. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2017. "The dynamics of hours worked and technology," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 67-82.
    5. Nooman Rebei, 2017. "Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks," IMF Working Papers 17/49, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Petrova, Katerina & Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2017. "A time varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 677, Bank of England.
    7. Ahrens, Steffen & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "State-dependence vs. timedependence: An empirical multi-country investigation of price sluggishness," Kiel Working Papers 1907, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Steffen Ahrens & Matthias Hartmann, 2015. "Cross-sectional evidence on state-dependent versus time-dependent price setting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2701-2709.

    More about this item


    Bayesian methods; great inflation; monetary policy; New Keynesian model;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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