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International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Christopoulos Dimitris K

    () (Panteion University)

  • Leon-Ledesma Miguel A.

    () (University of Kent)

Abstract

We present time series evidence on output convergence for 14 countries relative to the U.S. for the 1900-2008 period. We develop tests that allow for an unknown number of breaks in the series and also asymmetric convergence speed. We show that this asymmetry arises theoretically when the economy is not in the neighbourhood of the steady state. Breaks are modelled through a Fourier function fitted to the deterministic part of a time series, and asymmetries are modelled as a smooth transition function that matches the theory predictions. The tests are shown to have good finite sample properties. The results support the existence of convergence towards a mean that displays a break around the 1920s crisis and WWII. These breaks are associated to different patterns of post-WWII growth performance. Asymmetric mean reversion also appears to be an important feature driving convergence for most countries in the sample. This emphasizes the importance that disruptive historical events have on the dynamics of relative outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopoulos Dimitris K & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2011. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-33, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:15:y:2011:i:3:n:4
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    Cited by:

    1. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    2. Christopoulos, Dimitris & McAdam, Peter, 2017. "Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-61.
    3. Jaforullah, Mohammad & King, Alan, 2015. "Does the use of renewable energy sources mitigate CO2 emissions? A reassessment of the US evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 711-717.
    4. Alan King & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2016. "Is there club convergence in Latin America?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1011-1031, November.
    5. King Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson Carlyn, 2014. "Are income differences within the OECD diminishing? Evidence from Fourier unit root tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    7. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "International income convergence: Is Latin America actually different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 212-222.
    8. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    9. José Noguera-Santaella, 2017. "Is Sub-Saharan Africa catching up?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 555-575, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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