International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment
We present time series evidence on output convergence for 14 countries relative to the U.S. for the 1900-2008 period. We develop tests that allow for an unknown number of breaks in the series and also asymmetric convergence speed. We show that this asymmetry arises theoretically when the economy is not in the neighbourhood of the steady state. Breaks are modelled through a Fourier function fitted to the deterministic part of a time series, and asymmetries are modelled as a smooth transition function that matches the theory predictions. The tests are shown to have good finite sample properties. The results support the existence of convergence towards a mean that displays a break around the 1920s crisis and WWII. These breaks are associated to different patterns of post-WWII growth performance. Asymmetric mean reversion also appears to be an important feature driving convergence for most countries in the sample. This emphasizes the importance that disruptive historical events have on the dynamics of relative outputs.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 15 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Convergence in European GDP series: a multivariate common converging trend-cycle decomposition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 611-636.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005.
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677
- Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ludlow, Jorge & Enders, Walter, 2000. "Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-347.
- Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
- Peter E. Robertson & John Landon-Lane, 2004. "WWII and Long Run Convergence in the OECD," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 593, Econometric Society.
- Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & A. Stan Hurn, 2001. "Testing for Time Dependence in Parameters," Research Paper Series 58, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1308, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," IZA Discussion Papers 1313, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bentzen, Jan, 2005. "Testing for catching-up periods in time-series convergence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 323-328, September.
- Evans, P, 1996.
"Using Panel Data to Evaluate Growth Theories,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0397, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996.
"Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
- Camarero, Mariam, & Flôres, R. & C. Tamarit, 2002. "Time series evidence of international output convergence in Mercosur," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 87, Society for Computational Economics.
- Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, 05.
- Jochonia S Mathunjwa & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/590, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Datta, Anusua, 2003. "Time-series tests of convergence and transitional dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 233-240, November.
- Vasco M.Carvalho & Andrew C.Harvey, 2002.
"Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Carvalho, Vasco M. & Harvey, Andrew C., 2005. "Growth, cycles and convergence in US regional time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 667-686.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004.
"Testing for output convergence: a re-examination,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 45-63, January.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2004. "Testing for Output Convergence: A Re-examination," Working Papers 052004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2000. "Testing for Output Convergence: A Re-Examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 319, CESifo Group Munich.
- Perron, Pierre, 1990.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
- Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006.
"Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models,"
321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2005. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 05010, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Li, Qing & Papell, David, 1999. "Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 267-280, September.
- Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:15:y:2011:i:3:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.