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Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus

  • Havettová, Miroslava

  • Lábaj, Martin

Abstract

We employ income projection models based on human capital dynamics in order to assess quantitatively the role that educational improvements are expected to play as a driver of future income convergence in Europe. We concentrate on income convergence dynamics between emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Western European countries during the next 50 years. Our results indicate that improvements in human capital contribute significantly to the income convergence potential of European emerging economies. Using realistic scenarios, we quantify the effect that future human capital investments paths are expected to have in terms of speeding up the income convergence process in the region. The income projection exercise shows that the returns to investing in education in terms of income convergence in Europe could be sizeable, although it may take relatively long for the poorer economies of the region to rip the growth benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2012. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 143, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:3597
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    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Radiměřský & Vladimír Hajko, 2016. "Beta Convergence in the Export Volumes in EU Countries," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 64-69.
    2. Zhu, Xiaoge & Niu, Xiaoqin, 2024. "Impact of fintech, mineral resources extraction, and globalization on social inequality: Exploring the role of technology innovation in G10 economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Cieślik, Andrzej & Wciślik, Dominika Róża, 2020. "Convergence among the CEE-8 economies and their catch-up towards the EU-15," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-48.
    4. Weili Zhang & Jibin Fu & Quan Ju, 2020. "A study on the model of economic growth convergence in developing regions: an empirical analysis from Henan Province, China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 547-567, August.
    5. Tinatin Akhvlediani & Andrzej Cieślik, 2020. "Human capital, technological progress and technology diffusion across Europe: education matters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 475-493, August.
    6. Teemu Makkonen & Timo Mitze, 2019. "Deconstructing the Education-Innovation-Development Nexus in the EU-28 Using Panel Causality and Poolability Tests," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(2), pages 516-549, June.
    7. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2023. "Growth Effects of EU Expansion: A Penalized Synthetic Control Method," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    8. Dimitar Eftimoski, 2020. "Some new insights on economic convergence and growth in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 863-884, November.
    9. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Khosla, Sunil & Rahut, Dil Bahadur, 2024. "Can farmers with higher capabilities fend off falling into future Poverty? Empirical evidence from a tribal region in eastern India," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    10. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Publications - Reports 11896, The World Bank Group.
    11. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Loichinger, Elke & Vincelette, Gallina A., 2016. "Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 4-17.
    12. Allah Morad Seif & Hossein Panahi & Davoud Hamidi Razi, 2017. "Regional Economic Growth and Spatial Spillover Effects in MENA Area," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(4), pages 765-787, Autumn.
    13. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis Of Real And Predicted Inflation Convergence In Cee Countries During The Economic Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(2), pages 142-155, July.
    14. Law, Siong Hook & Naseem, N.A.M. & Lau, Wei Theng & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2020. "Can innovation improve income inequality? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    15. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, June.
    16. Andrzej Cieślik & Mehmet Burak Turgut, 2021. "Estimating the Growth Effects of 2004 Eastern Enlargement of the European Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    17. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
    18. Matkowski, Zbigniew & Prochniak, Mariusz & Rapacki, Ryszard, 2016. "Real Income Convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, Present, and Prospects," EconStor Conference Papers 146992, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Melania Michetti & Mehmet Pinar, 2019. "Forest Fires Across Italian Regions and Implications for Climate Change: A Panel Data Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 207-246, January.
    20. Philipp Steinbrunner & Julia Bronnmann, 2025. "Structural funds and $$\beta $$ β -convergence of German counties," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 341-392, July.
    21. Alessandra Canepa, 2024. "Socio-economic risk factors and wildfire crime in Italy: a quantile panel approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 431-465, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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