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Regional economic inequality in Egypt: A Kuznets curve, convergence, or shock-driven decline?

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  • Hussein Suleiman

    (Nagoya University
    Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies)

  • Yilin Chen

    (Nagoya University)

Abstract

This article studies regional (inter-provincial) economic inequality in Egypt to revisit the ‘Arab inequality puzzle’, which refers to the popular perception of rising inequality that contradicts official data. The article leverages provincial output per capita data to carry out four objectives. First, Gini and Theil indices are measured from 1992 to 2022; second, the presence of a Kuznets curve is investigated; third, sigma, beta, and club convergence among provinces are tested; and fourth, the causal effects of shocks from a recent structural adjustment programme and COVID-19 on regional inequality are examined. The findings show that regional inequality in Egypt has been high and has consistently risen from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. It declined in recent years, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic development, consistent with the Williamson–Kuznets hypothesis. However, there is no evidence of overall inter-provincial beta convergence, but only convergence within multiple clubs. Instead, the recent decline in inequality was caused by the shocks and was temporary in levels, after which inequality resumed its growing trend, with an even faster pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Hussein Suleiman & Yilin Chen, 2026. "Regional economic inequality in Egypt: A Kuznets curve, convergence, or shock-driven decline?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 75(1), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:75:y:2026:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-025-01434-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-025-01434-x
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    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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