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A Comparative Analysis Of Real And Predicted Inflation Convergence In Cee Countries During The Economic Crisis

Listed author(s):
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    ()

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, Romania)

The main objective of this study is to make a comparative analysis of inflation convergence in Central-Eastern European countries (CEE countries) during the economic crisis over 2008-2013. For Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia the inflation convergence has decreased in the analyzed period, the coefficient of variation (64.22%) showing strong divergence compared to the slow divergence indirectly predicted by the European Commission. The negative catch-up rates for Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia explain the large negative consequences of the actual economic crisis for these countries. The Fisher-type test for panel data indicated no convergence for real and predicted inflation convergence. The analysis based on random effects models indicated an inflation convergence rate of 15.47% in CEE economies compared to a predicted convergence rate of 2.04%.

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File URL: http://www.ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2014_VI2_SIM.pdf
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Article provided by Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University in its journal CES Working Papers.

Volume (Year): 6(2) (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 142-155

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Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2014:v:6:i:2:p:142-155
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://cse.uaic.ro

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  1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
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  7. Romain Bouis & Romain Duval & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Policy and Institutional Drivers of Economic Growth Across OECD and Non-OECD Economies: New Evidence from Growth Regressions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 843, OECD Publishing.
  8. Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  9. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-198, July.
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