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Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union

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  • Mark Holmes

Abstract

This letter investigates the extent of long-run inflation convergence among the major EU economies using panel data unit root and cointegration tests. Potentially, these methods have key advantages over time-series methods which, in the light of limited data, can suffer from power deficiency with a tendency to accept the null of nonstationarity or noncointegration. Using monthly inflation data over the period 1972-99, this study finds that inflation convergence was strongest during 1983-90 whereas the turbulence experienced within in the ERM in the early 1990s conferred some degree of macroeconomic independence among EU members.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Holmes, 2002. "Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 155-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:3:p:155-158
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850110054940
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Holmes & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 76-89, March.
    2. Rodney Thom, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A comment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 577-586, September.
    3. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    6. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1993. "Common stochastic trends and inflation convergence in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(2), pages 207-215, June.
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