IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v146y2010i2p339-357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Byrne
  • Norbert Fiess

Abstract

EMU monetary policy targets aggregate Euro Area inflation. Concerns are growing that a focus on aggregate inflation may cause national inflation rates to diverge. While different explanations for diverging aggregate Euro Area inflation have been brought forward, the very impact of aggregation on divergence has however not been studied. We find a striking difference in convergence depending on the level of aggregation. While aggregate national inflation rates are diverging, disaggregate inflation rates are converging. We find that aggregation appears to bias evidence towards non-convergence. Our results are consistent with prominent theoretical and empirical evidence on aggregation bias
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:146:y:2010:i:2:p:339-357
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-010-0053-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10290-010-0053-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10290-010-0053-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Olena Mykhaylova, 2006. "New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, January.
    2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    3. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    4. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    6. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    7. repec:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:5:p:535-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    10. Altissimo, Filippo & Mojon, Benoit & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 231-241, March.
    11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    12. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    13. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 313-348, April.
    14. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    15. Mojon, Benoît & Altissimo, Filippo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 729, European Central Bank.
    16. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
    17. Altissimo, Filippo & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 495-521.
    20. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    21. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    22. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    24. Aucremanne, Luc & Dhyne, Emmanuel, 2005. "Time-dependent versus state-dependent pricing: a panel data approach to the determinants of Belgian consumer price changes," Working Paper Series 462, European Central Bank.
    25. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    26. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    27. Jang, Myoung Jin & Shin, Dong Wan, 2005. "Comparison of panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 12-17, October.
    28. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-198, July.
    29. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    30. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1.
    31. Lane, Philip, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Oliver Jean Blanchard, 1987. "Aggregate and Individual Price Adjustment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 57-122.
    33. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 208-261.
    34. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    35. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    36. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    37. Mark Holmes, 2002. "Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 155-158.
    38. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter? [‘One market, one money, one price? Price dispersion in the European Union’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 354-387.
    39. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:359-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    41. Megow, N. & Uetz, M.J. & Vredeveld, T., 2004. "Stochastic Online Scheduling on Parallel Machines," Research Memorandum 040, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    42. Ravn, Morten & Rey, Hélène & Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2005. "'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    44. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Inflation convergence over time: Sector‐level evidence within Europe," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 183-217, August.
    2. Piotr Nowaczyk & Joanna Hernik, 2020. "Adopting the Euro will Cause an Increase in Prices: A Study on Inflationary Processes in Euro Area Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 377-403.
    3. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:106 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    5. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    6. Ismail H. GENC & Anil RUPASINGHA, 2009. "Time-series Tests of Stochastic Earnings Convergence across US Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1969-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    2. Tolga Omay & Mübariz Hasanov & Yongcheol Shin, 2018. "Testing for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels with Smooth Breaks and Cross-Sectionally Dependent Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 167-193, June.
    3. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 253-294.
    4. Dobnik, Frauke, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 303, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    6. Declan French, 2012. "Causation between health and income: a need to panic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 583-601, April.
    7. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0303, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Westerlund, Joakim & Larsson, Rolf, 2012. "Testing for a unit root in a random coefficient panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 254-273.
    9. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time‐Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0303 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    12. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Shahnazi, Rouhollah & Dehghan Shabani, Zahra, 2021. "The effects of renewable energy, spatial spillover of CO2 emissions and economic freedom on CO2 emissions in the EU," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 293-307.
    14. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    15. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007.
    17. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    18. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    19. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    20. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
    21. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area inflation; Aggregation bias; Convergence; C12; C22; E31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:146:y:2010:i:2:p:339-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.