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Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence

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  • Joseph Byrne
  • Norbert Fiess

Abstract

EMU monetary policy targets aggregate Euro Area inflation. Concerns are growing that a focus on aggregate inflation may cause national inflation rates to diverge. While different explanations for diverging aggregate Euro Area inflation have been brought forward, the very impact of aggregation on divergence has however not been studied. We find a striking difference in convergence depending on the level of aggregation. While aggregate national inflation rates are diverging, disaggregate inflation rates are converging. We find that aggregation appears to bias evidence towards non-convergence. Our results are consistent with prominent theoretical and empirical evidence on aggregation bias
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  • Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:146:y:2010:i:2:p:339-357
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-010-0053-y
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    2. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    3. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    4. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Inflation convergence over time: Sector‐level evidence within Europe," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 183-217, August.
    5. Ismail H. GENC & Anil RUPASINGHA, 2009. "Time-series Tests of Stochastic Earnings Convergence across US Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1969-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Piotr Nowaczyk & Joanna Hernik, 2020. "Adopting the Euro will Cause an Increase in Prices: A Study on Inflationary Processes in Euro Area Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 377-403.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area inflation; Aggregation bias; Convergence; C12; C22; E31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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