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New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials

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  • Matthew Canzoneri
  • Robert Cumby
  • Behzad Diba
  • Olena Mykhaylova

Abstract

What determines the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials? The answer has strong implications for monetary policy and in Europe for the Stability and Growth Pact. In the United States, inflation rates move pro-cyclically, and across the Euro Area, inflation differentials are positively correlated with growth differentials. This suggests that demand shocks are the primary determinants of the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials. In this paper, we discuss New Keynesian explanations of these correlations, and we argue that demand shocks are either missing or inadequately modeled in the in typical New Keynesian model. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Olena Mykhaylova, 2006. "New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:27-55
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-006-5213-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.
    2. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2012. "Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 238-264, March.
    3. Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2022. "How should central banks react to household inflation heterogeneity?," DICE Discussion Papers 378, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    4. Matthew Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: Policy Issues & Analytical Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 165, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Mykhaylova Olena, 2011. "Welfare Implications of Regional Asymmetries in a Monetary Union," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-43, December.
    6. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 128-141.
    7. Matthew B. Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In A Monetary Union: Policy Issues And Analytical Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 21-43, September.
    8. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 103-125.
    9. Brede, Maren, 2016. "Budget-neutral fiscal rules targeting inflation differentials," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145513, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Stempel, Daniel & Neyer, Ulrike, 2022. "Should Central Banks Consider Household Inflation Heterogeneity?," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264053, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Mykhaylova, Olena, 2009. "Welfare implications of country size in a monetary union," MPRA Paper 23323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Daniel Stempel & Johannes Zahner, 2022. "DSGE Models and Machine Learning: An Application to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202232, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 133-144.

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