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Can structural small open economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?

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  • Alejandro Justiniano
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model assumes uncorrelated shocks across countries and implies that U.S. shocks account for less than 3 percent of the variability observed in several Canadian series, at all forecast horizons. Accordingly, model-implied cross-correlation functions between Canada and U.S. are essentially zero. Both findings are at odds with the data. A specification that assumes correlated cross-country shocks partially resolves this discrepancy, but still falls well short of matching reduced-form evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Can structural small open economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Working Paper Series WP-09-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-09-19
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    Keywords

    Economic conditions;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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