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Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation

  • Thomas Lubik
  • Wing Teo

Existing results on the contribution of terms of trade and world interest rate shocks to output fluctuations in small open economies range from less than 10% to almost 90%. We argue that an identification problems lies at the heart of these vastly di¤erent results. In this paper, we overcome this by estimating a DSGE model using a structural Bayesian estimation approach. We apply our methodology to five developed and developing economies.. Our approach allows us to e?ciently exploit cross-equation restrictions implied by the structural model. We find that world interest rate shocks are the main driving forces of business cycles in small open economies while terms of trade shocks are not.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 522.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:522
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  1. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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  10. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  11. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
  12. Selim Elekdag & Alejandro Justiniano & Ivan Tchakarov, 2006. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 2.
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  14. William Blankenau & M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Staff Reports 94, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 97/82, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
  17. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  18. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  19. Thomas A. Lubik, 2007. "Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are "closed"," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 393-412.
  20. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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